Determining the Reliability of Forecasting and Warning Times for Meteorology and Hydrology

17:57, 11/07/2024

On October 23, 2017, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment issued Circular 42/2017/TT-BTNMT to regulate the determination of the reliability of meteorological and hydrological forecasting and warning times.

Circular 42 stipulates the method for determining the reliability of forecast and warning times as follows:

For cases of point forecasts and warnings:

- The allowable margin of error for forecast and warning times is determined to be 25% of the anticipated time;- The quality of forecast and warning times is deemed "reliable" when the margin of error for forecast and warning times is less than or equal to the allowable margin of error for forecast and warning times, and is deemed "unreliable" when the margin of error for forecast and warning times exceeds the allowable margin of error for forecast and warning times.

For cases of forecasting or warning the period during which hydrological factors or phenomena appear, Circular 42 stipulates as follows: The quality of the forecast and warning period is deemed "reliable" when the warned factors or phenomena appear during the forecast and warning period, and is deemed "unreliable" when the warned factors or phenomena do not appear during the forecast and warning period.

See details in Circular 42/2017/TT-BTNMT effective from December 08, 2017.

-Thao Uyen-

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