What is the process of forecasting and warning of extreme heat in Vietnam? What are the contents of the extreme heat forecast and warning?
- Does the content of extreme heat forecast and warning include forecasts and warnings of disaster risk levels due to extreme heat?
- What is the process of forecasting and warning of extreme heat in Vietnam?
- What are the regulations on the frequency and time to issue extreme heat forecast and warning broadcasts in Vietnam?
Does the content of extreme heat forecast and warning include forecasts and warnings of disaster risk levels due to extreme heat?
According to Article 19 of Circular 25/2022/TT-BTNMT, the contents of extreme heat forecast and warning include the following five contents:
- Maximum temperature.
- Lowest relative humidity.
- Hot sunny time of the day.
- Area of influence, appearance time, end time.
- Level of disaster risk due to extreme heat.
What is the process of forecasting and warning of extreme heat in Vietnam? What are the contents of the extreme heat forecast and warning?(Image from the Internet)
What is the process of forecasting and warning of extreme heat in Vietnam?
Pursuant to Article 20 of Circular 25/2022/TT-BTNMT, the forecast and warning of extreme heat is carried out according to the following process:
(1) Collect and process all kinds of information and data
- Data on extreme heat patterns on weather maps;
- Monitoring data on temperature, relative humidity;
- Satellite data;
- Data on extreme heat through numerical forecasting model products;
- Data and information on the current status of objects that are likely to be affected by the heat and the damage (if any) due to the effects of the heat.
(2) Analysis and assessment of the current situation
- Evaluate and analyze collected data to identify the activities of the following extreme heat patterns: Western hot depression; compressed low pressure groove; subtropical high pressure; low-level southwest wind combined with elevated subtropical high pressure;
- Determine the intensity of the heat through the highest temperature and lowest relative humidity of the day;
- Determine the range of extreme heat;
- Determining the evolution of the heat by the intensity of the heat and the extent of the heat in the previous 24 to 48 hours.
(3) Implement forecasting and warning plans
- Options to be used in forecasting and warning of extreme heat in the national hydrometeorological forecasting and warning system:
+ The plan is based on a statistical method based on current and past monitoring information and forecasts for the future;
+ The plan is based on the numerical model method (single and combination);
+ The plan for analyzing the forecaster's experience based on the results of statistical forecasting and numerical model forecasting;
+ The plan is based on other methods;
- Based on specific conditions, organizations and individuals that are not part of the national hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning system shall themselves stipulate the use of appropriate forecasting and warning plans.
(4) Discussion of forecasts and warnings
- Analyze and evaluate the reliability of the forecast results by different options, the forecast results in the latest forecast broadcasts;
- Synthesize forecast results from different options and forecasts of forecasters;
- The person responsible for issuing the selection broadcast and making the final forecast conclusions ensures the reliability according to the forecast period.
(5) Building forecast and warning broadcasts
- The national hydrometeorological forecasting and warning system shall develop and issue a broadcast on heat forecast and warning according to regulations;
- Based on actual requirements, organizations and individuals that are not part of the national hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning system shall self-stipulate the content of the newsletter accordingly.
(6) Provide forecast and warning broadcasts
- The national hydro-meteorological forecast and warning system provides extreme heat forecast and warning broadcasts as prescribed in Article 34 of Decision 18/2021/QD-TTg;
- Organizations and individuals that are not part of the national hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning system shall themselves stipulate a list of addresses to be provided with broadcasts to suit actual requirements.
(7) Adding forecast and warning broadcasts
In the event of a particularly intense heat wave and the possibility of a prolonged period, it is necessary to add forecast and warning broadcasts in addition to the issued broadcasts.
(8) Evaluation of the quality of forecasts and warnings
- National hydrometeorological forecasting and warning system: Assessing the complete and timely implementation of heat forecast and warning according to regulations; evaluate the quality of weather forecast and warning broadcasts.
The evaluation of the quality of the forecast and warning broadcasts shall be carried out after having sufficient monitoring data according to the forecast period of the broadcast;
- Organizations and individuals that are not part of the national hydrometeorological forecasting and warning system must comply with current regulations on assessment of forecast quality.
What are the regulations on the frequency and time to issue extreme heat forecast and warning broadcasts in Vietnam?
According to Article 21 of Circular 25/2022/TT-BTNMT, the frequency and time of issuance of extreme heat forecast and warning broadcasts in Vietnam are determined:
- The national hydro-meteorological forecast and warning system issues extreme heat forecast and warning broadcasts:
+ The first extreme heat warning broadcast is issued when detecting the possibility of heat in the warning area; the next extreme heat warning is issued 01 broadcast a day at 14:30;
+ Everyday, there are 03 extreme heat forecast broadcasts issued at: 8:00, 14:00 and 20:00; In the event of a particularly intense and prolonged heat wave, it is necessary to issue a number of additional broadcasts interspersed between the main broadcasts.
- Organizations and individuals that are not part of the national hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning system are responsible for stipulating the frequency and time of issuing broadcasts in accordance with actual requirements.
Circular 25/2022/TT-BTNMT takes effect from March 15, 2023.
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