Regulations on Drought Forecasting and Warning

Circular 42 stipulates the forecasting and warning elements and phenomena, including:

- Possibility of drought occurrence;- Total rainfall in the forecast and warning area;- Total water volume in the forecast and warning area;- Time of drought occurrence;- Scope of drought occurrence.

Assessment of the quality of forecasting and warning the possibility of drought occurrence: The quality of forecasting and warning the possibility of drought occurrence is determined as "reliable" when ensuring the following conditions:

- The forecast and warning area experiences a shortage of total monthly rainfall of over 50% compared to the multi-year average and lasts for 2 months or more;- Water source in the area is depleted by over 20% compared to the multi-year average.

The quality assessment of forecasting and warning total rainfall is conducted according to the legal regulations on the quality assessment of meteorological forecasting and warning.

Additionally, Circular 42 also stipulates the quality assessment of forecasting and warning total water volume in the forecast and warning area as follows:

- The forecast and warning error margin of total water volume is determined in Clause 1, Article 6 of this Circular;- The quality of forecasting and warning total water volume is determined as "reliable" when the forecast and warning error margin of total water volume is less than or equal to 30% of the actual total water volume and is determined as "unreliable" when the forecast and warning error margin of total water volume exceeds 30% of the actual total water volume.

Regarding the assessment of the quality of forecasting and warning the time of drought occurrence:

- The forecast and warning error margin of the time of drought occurrence is determined in Clause 1, Article 7 of Circular 42;- The quality of forecasting and warning the time of drought occurrence is determined in Article 12 of Circular 42.

When assessing the quality of forecasting and warning the scope of drought occurrence, the quality of forecasting and warning the scope of drought occurrence is determined in Clause 1, Article 14 of Circular 42.

See details in Circular 42/2017/TT-BTNMT effective from December 8, 2017.

-Thao Uyen-

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