Principles for Evaluating the Quality of Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasts

Circular 42 stipulates that when evaluating the quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts and warnings, the following principles must be adhered to:

- The quality of hydrological forecasts and warnings must be evaluated based on the comparison of information and data between observation and forecast.- Different forecast and warning periods must be evaluated separately.- The forecasted and warned factors and phenomena included in the bulletins must be evaluated.

At the same time, Circular 42 also stipulates cases where the quality of forecasts and warnings is not evaluated when:

- There is not enough observational information about the intensity, level of danger, extent, time of occurrence, or there is no information from disaster prevention and search and rescue command authorities at various levels regarding dangerous hydrological phenomena;- Dike breaks, dam breaks, or reservoir incidents that significantly impact downstream flows occur that cannot be forecasted.

Additionally, Circular 42 also stipulates cases where the reliability of forecasts and warnings is not evaluated when:

- There is no information or the information is inaccurate regarding the expected opening/closing time of reservoir spillways affecting the forecast and warning locations that are influenced by reservoir regulations;- The error between the actual average discharge and the projected average discharge exceeds 20% for forecast and warning locations influenced by reservoir regulations.

See details in Circular 42/2017/TT-BTNMT, effective from December 08, 2017.

-Thao Uyen-

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