05 Principles for Evaluating the Quality of Oceanographic Forecasting and Warning

According to the provisions of Article 4 Circular 16/2019/TT-BTNMT, the assessment of the quality of maritime forecasts and warnings is based on the following 05 principles:

Illustrative Image (Source: Internet)

- The assessment of the quality of maritime forecasts and warnings must be based on the comparison of information and data between forecasts and observations collected from maritime stations, buoy stations, sea radar stations, marine vessels, and re-analysis data.- The forecasting and warning periods must be assessed separately.- Forecasted and warned factors and phenomena in the bulletin must be assessed.- The quality of maritime forecasts and warnings is only assessed when there is sufficient observation information or information from the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control; the National Committee for Incident, Disaster Response, and Search and Rescue, and the Command Committees for Natural Disaster Prevention and Search and Rescue at all levels.- There is no regulation for assessing wave direction during storms, tropical depressions, and surges with actual observation values below 0.3m.

Additionally, the levels of assessment for the quality of maritime forecasts and warnings are also stipulated in Circular 16 as follows:

- The reliability of forecasts and warnings for maritime factors and phenomena is assessed according to the following levels:

- The "Reliable" level is indicated by the "+" sign in the reliability assessment tables of forecasted factors and phenomena;- The "Unreliable" level is indicated by the "-" sign in the reliability assessment tables of forecasted factors and phenomena.

- The completeness of the forecast and warning bulletin for maritime factors and phenomena is assessed as "complete" and "incomplete".- The timeliness of the forecast and warning bulletin for maritime factors and phenomena is assessed as "timely" and "untimely".

More details can be found in Circular 16/2019/TT-BTNMT which takes effect from November 15, 2019.

Thu Ba

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